THE ADVENTURE OF THE MISSING ALGORITHM
We warmed ourselves before the fire late of an April evening in this the chilliest spring Georgetown had known since Coolidge’s day. My companion lay sprawled in the wicker chair puffing on his favorite Calabash pipe. The distinctive aroma of organic, shade-grown Sobranie wafted through the salon. I knew from long acquaintance, though, that his mind was fixed on solving one of those intricate puzzles that so amused him. I guessed that it was the latest twist in the tortuous saga of the Mueller investigations which had kept all of the capital abuzz for weeks. I was startled then when suddenly he pronounced: “So what is it now about Afghanistan? I surmise that from the way your shoulder is twitching where you received the Jezail bullet outside of Jalalabad.”
I had in fact been reading the latest Consortium News entries which did include Afghanistan as one among several troubling foreign matters. “I am inclined to think…,” I began before being cut off with uncharacteristic curtness: “by all means do, That would be a welcome novelty in Washington. So many good brains so under-employed.”
“It is the vexed question they pose about the unharmonious sounds issuing from senior foreign policy-makers on the outlook in Kabul”, I resumed. “President Obama had officially declared the war at an end on Christmas 2014; yet, Washington spent 7 years moving heaven and earth to get Ghani to sign a SOFA that would keep several thousand of our armed forces there until Doomsday or victory – whichever comes first. They then placed all their hopes on Abdullah Abdullah – a man held in such high esteem that they stutter when pronouncing his name.”
“You – and the editors – have overlooked a few items” revealing that he already was apprised of the matter. ‘Let us not overlook the CIA’s invoking of the danger presented by the remnants of the Islamic State, now made more fearsome by their embarrassing losses in Syria and Iraq. That is a tale of grand strategy gone awry that the Trumpites evidently, and perhaps mistakenly, believed the world is not yet ready for – like The Giant Rat of Sumatra. Then, lest we forget, there is the small matter of the $8 billion that the U.S. Treasury transferred from the Afghan National Bank to its own account.”
“Yellen has justified that singular action by referencing the huge sums that American taxpayers have donated over two decades to provide the country with security, instruction in establishing cutting edge democratic public institutions, and the sales volume to spark an asset boom in tribal rugs. If my arithmetic is correct, the $8 billion represents little more a token – a few cents on the dollar. Far better terms than the Afghans could have gotten from the Gambinos/Genoveses or Erik Prince or Goldman Sachs. Moreover, America has demonstrated its generosity of spirit in adding two unprecedented bonuses: a) a carefully researched article in The New York Times Food section offering complete recipes for dishes that might please any stray refugee from Kabul who straggles into your church’s soup kitchen; and b) a YELP guide to the housing market in Burundi whose President has expressed a willingness to provide welcome wagon hospitality to any Afghan DP whom we might point in that direction.”
“Well, that is reassuring – to see the Anglo-Saxon nations demonstrating once again their warm-hearted humanity. As in Ukraine. Admittedly, these Biden people have shown themselves to be an extraordinary bunch of bunglers to allow matters to reach such a tragic pass. But in fairness couldn’t we explain it all simply as the trials and tribulations of novices in so far over their heads that the bubbles don’t even reach the surface?”
“I fear the evidence does not support such innocent theories. One hopes, though, that the situation may shortly change if I read the signs correctly” Holmes added enigmatically. The gleam in his eye prompted me to press him: “Holmes – is it really possible that the White House is seeking your assistance? What an extraordinary event that would be!” I waxed enthusiastic as the prospect.
“My dear Watson, you are demonstrating uncommon perspicacity today. Indeed, for the past week I have been receiving a string of briefings from the highest levels of the official intelligence community at the express wish of Mr. Jake Sullivan. Please accept my apologies for not confiding in you sooner. I had no choice since I was sworn to secrecy until a few small administrative details have been arranged.”
“Surely those incidentals could be easily resolved,” I interjected. “Your renown, and the very fact that the stakes are immeasurable, should together clear the path. Not to mention your outstanding self-efficacy – to use a term favored by admission committees at Ivy League schools to keep a lid on Asian enrollment.”
‘I’m afraid that nothing in this town is that simple. One must remember that the government of the Suffering Servant is not at all fashioned in the likeness of Queen Victoria’s realm. Moreover, we are dealing with matters of the utmost sensitivity. For my assistance has been solicited to investigate the performance of the country’s sixteen intelligence agencies whose workings defy any logic known to mortal men. They expend the fortunes of Croesus year after year. They have refined the most exquisite technology. They employ thousands of brilliant computer scientists and mathematicians. Still, they fail routinely to foresee consequential developments that could imperil the safety and well-being of the Republic. That is inexplicable, and unacceptable.”
I knew to what he was referring. ‘You mean the Yemen snafu, Putin’s moves in Ukraine, the Taiwan provocation, the Baghdad rebuff, the Iran nuclear cul-de-sac, the Kim Jung-Un volte face, Erdogan’s double-dealing on Syria…….”
“Enough Watson! The full recitation will weary your readers. Now if only they will remove the restraints that keep me idle here at 222A Avon Lane. I wish nothing more than to deploy my full powers in what promises to be the crowning achievement of my career. Were I to succeed against all odds, I would be content with the modest recognition represented by the official acknowledgement of my status in this country and the granting of a Green Card. Dios!”
‘It is intolerable that you should be placed in this unseemly position. Exactly what are the restraints that are binding you?”
“Your sympathy, Watson, is a token of your loyalty. But unavailing as my recent appearances on The View and Good Morning America confirm. There is first the issue of a security clearance. We must bear in mind my past associations with a remarkable number of notorious persons and shady denizens of the London underworld who figured in the many cases you have chronicled. That lout, the King of Bohemia – for one. Colonel Sebastian ‘The Sniper’ Moran – for another.”
“But surely, Holmes, the FBI and CIA have the resources to determine the singular services you rendered the Crown on each of those occasions. In addition, I have the impression that Lestrade is ready to vouch for you – on the assumption, of course, that he hasn’t been tossed from his assisted living facility in Upper Brixton by Boris Johnson’s henchmen on the grounds that he is fit enough to cadge shillings outside the Farrington tube station in the City.”
“That is clear thinking, my friend. However, its method is retro – as they say here. Today, the investigation of individual cases by legwork and record searching is considered inefficient and wasteful. General Nakasone and Gina Haspel explained to me at length that the cutting-edge work is done with algorithms.”
“Algorithms! – never heard of them.”
“Bear with me, Watson. A precise definition is not easy to come by. It is a mathematic formula of great complexity, and great power, that allows one to sift vast amounts of data. In the past, the accumulation of raw data was followed by its arduous sorting and categorization. That was judged the critical step toward mining the data in a manner that identified the persons and events whose elucidation was the object of the exercise. Then a few creative minds came to the realization that sorting was wasteful and unnecessary. Mass data acquisition achieved through comprehensive electronic surveillance was susceptible to assessment by the application of those algorithms whose existence was unknown to you until this very moment.”
“I have received an intensive tutorial from a brilliant Harvard professor who has written a dozen books on the subject. His thirteenth, now in press, explains what he wrote in the first twelve. Please be so good as to keep an eye peeled for it when next you peruse the Amazon lists.”
“An algorithm worth its equations is constructed around a complex of possible correlations and associations. That endows the algorithmic search with the capacity to process that volume of data to ascertain what persons, located where, are worthy of attention. In Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen or Somalia, persons so identified are targeted for action that will “neutralize” them – ‘neutralize’ being one of Ms. Haspel’s favorite terms. Raison d’état, my good friend, raison d’état!””
”But can they be confident that the identification and assessment is correct?” I wondered.
“Quite so. The way the Intelligence people see the situation is that if you’re right most of the time, the program is valid and viable – on the ground and politically. They do admit that on rare occasions persons who may be only somewhat of a latent threat are killed – and on even rarer occasions an innocent suffers the same unfortunate fate.”
“Do you mean Holmes that were we were we identified through the power of an algorithm as likely miscreants who had conversed with the wrong people, even as we barbecued ribs on the 4th of July, we’d run the risk of being blown to smithereens – along with Mrs. Hudson?”
“Indeed, Watson. I fear that Mrs. Hudson would be collateral damage. Fortunes of war. In recompense, her relations in Northumberland will be offered two options: an investigation by Central Command of uncertain duration or $5,000 in cash. As for me….I doubt that brother Mycroft would bestir himself from the Diogenes Club to join a class action suit.”
“Pray understand that accurate identification and targeting is not the reason why these esteemed gentlemen have decided to call upon my services. It is that litany of Intelligence failures you enunciated that is the concern of the White House. The failure rate has crossed a threshold of unacceptability. The Chosen One has determined that the flaw is in his Intelligence agencies – and he wants it fixed.”
“Yes, Watson, I can sense your as yet unspoken protests. It is true, of course, that notorious Intelligence failures most often are failures of intelligence. This is especially so when matters of political complexity and personal judgment are at play. Regrettably, I am powerless to pursue that line of reform. My mandate is to refine the algorithms themselves so that they have the potential to incorporate those ‘soft’ variables into the search engine.”
I was stunned. My friend’s great powers of observation and logical induction are unmatched. How would it be possible for even Holmes to merge the qualitative with the quantitative? At the very least, he required the services of a mathematical mind as supreme as his own analytical mind.
As if reading my thoughts, Holmes followed with a revelation that left me reeling. “There is one person who has the mental attributes that are necessary. Professor Moriarty.”
“My deepest apologies. John. Here – have some brandy!”
“By the greatest of coincidences, I recently was apprised of the most remarkable news about my old nemesis. After many years living under a pseudonym in Zurich, where he became the theoretical genius behind Collateralized Debt Obligations and derivatives, he has been transformed into a person of the most passionate Faith. To be brief: he found Jesus. My sources, men of unimpeachable character and integrity, inform me that the blessed event occurred when, on a clandestine visit to London, he viewed Tony Blair’s London Eye. In a moment of epiphany, he envisaged himself on Judgment Day trying to fit himself through that eye of a needle. There can be no more auspicious circumstance.”
“Moriarty has devoted himself to a life of good works in the sincere hope of repentance for the Sins that he has on his conscience. It is only natural that he should find in America the environment most conducive to earnest Sinners seeking to redraw the balance sheet. The prolific community of those similarly engaged is inspiring.”
“I fully expect that soon he will be honored as the Comeback Man of the year by Time Magazine with a long cover story recounting his spiritual journey. Indeed, the word around town is that Moriarity is a strong contender for the coveted Comeback Man of the 21st Century – a worthy successor to Richard Nixon, the 20th Century honoree. I do note, however, that he may well be eclipsed by Tony Blair whose visage adorns the latest issue of the Economist which features a lengthy interview with that mythic figure wherein he draws on his triumphant experience in Mesopotamia to shed light on the path ahead in Ukraine. Doubtless, Baghdad Blair will soon find an honored place in the annals of British history at the right hand of China Gordon.’
“I shall say no more. But I do ask, my good fellow, whether you would provide me with your steadfast company later tonight on a venture whereby I hope to begin placing the Intelligence services of this great country on a sound footing.”
I gave my consent without hesitation. “Then,” he said with a thin smile, “let us leave immediately to catch the 10:20 to Bethesda before the Metro breaks down for the night.”
“Who could ask for anything more!”